I’m back, mates! For one last time, I’m going to be going over the political race, in the US this year, and the series is left with one final question: who is going to win? This is going to be another full analysis of the race, and if you haven’t seen the two individual articles I made on each candidate already, you can check them out here (Trump, Clinton). And, once again, for one final time, despite what you might think about any candidates, in any country, for any political election or decision, always remember to do your fact checking first, especially before you make up your mind on a theory, or conspiracy that may seem a bit, well, hard to believe.
Anyway, here we are: the showdown. I’m going to make my best guess on who’s going to win, first by comparing and contrasting both candidates pasts, political affiliations, stances on issues, scandals and controversies, as well as, poll results, to make the best conclusion I can come to. So what are we waiting for? Let’s get cracking!
For now, I’ll be simply going over which issues the candidates agree and disagree on. For more complete summaries for each candidate, check out the original posts (Trump, Clinton):
Agreements – Foreign policy, economy (to a certain degree), civil liberties, crime (to a certain degree), national security, veterans.
Disagreements – Immigration, abortion, gun-control, taxes, healthcare, gay-marriage, environment, education, spending, Medicare, energy.
Please keep in mind that these are general summaries. For a more in-depth summary of each, visit the other posts (Trump, Clinton):
Trump – In general, Trump’s various scandals and controversies are much more clear-cut, and open than Clinton’s are. Although in many cases (such as Trump University) the verdict is not always for certain, there are definitely more than enough examples of Trump acting out. You don’t need to go far to find examples of Trump’s many profane claims, or other questionable quotes.
Clinton - In general, Clinton definitely has been convicted of less things than Trump, however, her reputation is shrouded in much more mystery, and secrecy than Trump is. Many scandals, such as potential deals with Tyson Foods, her many released emails, and even primary rigging, are all unproven, but still raise many questions (and red flags).
These statistics are all pulled from websites that are constantly being updated. If you would like more updated information, or would like to see the sources for the information below, you can follow the links attached to each poll. The main website I’ll be using is realclearpolitics.com. Ratios are rounded to the nearest whole number:
General Polls – Trump (41.7), Clinton (47.7) or 47:53 - (source)
Favorability – Trump (34.1), Clinton (43.0) or 44:56 - (source, source)
Electoral Collage – Trump (154), Clinton (272) or 36:64 - (source)
Individually, as we’ve already discussed in the previous articles, if both candidates were to campaign as individuals to either be elected, or not, Trump has the clear, lower chance of winning, with a 44.24% chance, and Clinton with a 54.84% chance (you can see the figures in the posts linked above). Far off in terms of number, but in general, it seems that the public is pretty divided about the two figures.
Against each other, using the information both below this point, and above it in the polls section, I was able to compile up a rough ration of the chances of Trump winning the general election, vs Clinton winning. After calculating averages (and according to my calculations), the ratio of Trump winning to Clinton winning is 43.28 to 56.66, which means the chances of Trump winning the election against Clinton is 43.3%, while Clintons chance of winning against Trump is 56.7%, very close to my original estimates. All in all, this means that Hillary Clinton is the most likely candidate to win this years election.
Pros and Cons – Trump (+3), Clinton (+6) or 33:66 - (self-determined)
Issues – Trump (103.6), Clinton (97.6) or 51:49 - (20 issues pulled, I Side With)
“Referendum” Poll – Trump (24), Clinton (26) or 48:52 - (source)
Thanks for reading everyone! Remember, if you didn’t see the last two articles, be sure to check those out, and don’t forget to leave a comment (it helps add to the discussion). If think any information on this page is incorrect, or if you would like to inquire about adding to this page, please visit the contact page, and follow the instructions there.
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